The new edition of the AP Top 25 college football rankings will have some major changes through the middle of its standings after four ranked teams lost to unranked opponents during Week 9 of the 2020 season. The question is whether some of those ranked teams will still be in the top 25 and whether any of those who pulled off the upsets will find their way into the poll.
One of the major stories of Saturday was the upset that didn't happen as Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei won in his first career start thanks to a huge second-half comeback against Boston College. Things were much less stressful for Alabama (as it shut out Mississippi State) and Notre Dame (as it routed Georgia Tech). That sets up a top-five showdown between the Tigers and Fighting IRish next week. Even Ohio State, the top team with the toughest challenge in Week 9, held control of the competition against Penn State throughout the night.
Oklahoma State will fall from No. 6 after suffering its first loss of the season to Texas, but otherwise, the top of the rankings are going to remain stable. But that's not the case for the rest of the top 25, which has to adjust for the losses by Michigan, North Carolina, Kansas State and Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are a particularly interesting case since both losses have come to ranked teams, but ultimately, I think the voters will find it tough to keep an 0-2 team ranked when there are teams with anywhere from four to six games under their belts and wins on the board. Big Ten teams saw some immediate boosts from the first week back, but those same teams will fall short when splitting hairs due to a smaller sample size.
It's all a lot for voters to consider, which makes the end of the rankings far less predictable than the top 10. Here's how we think the new AP Top 25 will look on Sunday. Last week's rankings in parenthesis.
1. Clemson (1): We may see the Tigers lose some first-place votes after needing a dramatic comeback to beat Boston College, but I don't think there will be enough of a shake up atop the ballots to warrant a changing of No. 1. Some may think Uiagalelei's stellar debut only confirms the Tigers' elite depth, but there are other worthy contenders in the "best team in college football" debate.
2. Alabama (2): Mississippi State is a mess right now, so it's hard to expect any poll shake up from a 41-point win. The Crimson Tide have next week off then return for a unique edition of the LSU rivalry, at which point they can make their claim for No. 1 and get some revenge for last year's loss.
3. Ohio State (3): At some point the Buckeyes are going to retain some of the first-place votes they lost during the uncertainty and delay around the 2020 season. Beating Penn State handily is the most impressive win the Buckeyes could probably have achieved, so we may see a few votes return, but it will be about the style points (and the performance of both Clemson and Alabama) deciding how those points are decided over the next several weeks.
4. Notre Dame (4): The Fighting Irish were punching the clock against Georgia Tech, dispatching of the Yellow Jackets in a workmanlike manner. The offense can be plodding but it's efficient, and the defense is stout against the run and in scoring situations. Notre Dame is so solid that it might be able to sustain the pressures of holding a second half lead against Clemson a little better than Boston College did when we see these two ACC title hopefuls clash next week.
5. Georgia (5): The Bulldogs aren't going to wow voters with a 14-3 win against Kentucky, but they aren't going to get punished to the point of getting dropped behind Cincinnati.
6. Cincinnati (7): Some teams reach the top 10 by circumstance of their preseason rankings and other teams losing. It seems like Cincinnati has only gotten better as its moved up the poll, stacking better performances on top of good ones and taking down its toughest opponents in the AAC. The Bearcats went to Dallas beat SMU 42-13 then followed that up with a dominant 49-10 victory against Memphis, snapping a losing streak to the Tigers. Houston, UCF and Tulsa all remain as potential losses but Cincinnati going undefeated is the conversation with the way the Bearcats are peaking at this crucial point of the season.
7. Texas A&M (8): Now at 4-1 with the lone loss coming to Alabama, the Aggies are staring down the opportunity to become a key piece of the College Football Playoff and New Year's Six race. The next three opponents are South Carolina, Tennessee and Ole Miss, giving Texas A&M a chance to entrench itself as one this year's top 10 teams before a one-two punch to close the regular season against LSU and Auburn. The Tide might be cruising to an SEC West title and return to Atlanta, but Texas A&M has a chance to turn in one of its most successful seasons in nearly a decade if it takes care of business in games its favored to win over the next month.
8. Florida (10): Look away from the brawl and see the storyline of Florida's win against Missouri as the most complete performance we've seen from the Gators this season. Even with multiple key contributors sidelined on defense, the Gators dominated in a wire-to-wire 41-17 win against the Tigers. Florida-Georgia is next week on CBS.
9. Wisconsin (9): Tough news day out of Wisconsin with athletic director Barry Alvarez confirming the number of positive cases in the football program is up to 22. The school will decide on Tuesday whether next week's game against Purdue can be played, but for now, the number of games canceled for the Badgers is only Saturday's game against Nebraska.
10. BYU (11): The Cougars left no doubt against Western Kentucky, jumping out to a 32-point first half lead and cruising to a 41-10 win against Western Kentucky.
11. Miami (12): The Hurricanes were off in Week 9 and are back in action next Friday night against NC State.
12. Oregon (14): It's finally game week for the Ducks, who kick off their 2020 season next Saturday against Stanford.
13. Indiana (17): Tom Allen has Indiana playing some solid defense and that unit has been able to capitalize on opponents' mistakes with turnovers that have a played a role in both last week's win against Penn State and Saturday's victory at Rutgers. It's not quite a team that should feel comfortable in the top 15, where I think it will land after some shake up, but it can anchor that position with a win against Michigan next week.
14. Marshall (19): This week's game against FIU was postponed due to COVID-19 issues for the Panthers. Next up is UMass at home Saturday.
15. Coastal Carolina (20): The Chanticleers could jump Marshall based on the eye-popping 51-0 win against Georgia State, but the point differential in last week's balloting leaves some room to be made up against a team that had its game canceled. The Panthers have played everyone close and were just 3.5-point underdogs for the matchup, yet Coastal Carolina made it look like they were in different leagues.
16. Oklahoma State (6): While there's going to be a major adjustment after losing at home to an unranked team, I think a surge in momentum behind Texas and an acknowledgement of the close game will keep Oklahoma State ahead of some other one-loss teams.
17. USC (21): Breakfast ball is here. USC starts its 2020 season next Saturday in the noon ET (9 a.m. PT) window against Arizona State.
18. SMU (22): The Mustangs offense continues to hum, and the strength of their ranking is the profile. SMU has six wins and 30-plus points in every one of them, including Saturday's 51-37 final against Navy. Its only loss has come to Cincinnati, which held SMU to just 13 points in defeat. If Cincinnati is believed to be one of the best teams in college football, then SMU's lone loss shouldn't keep it down when there's plenty of other evidence to argue for their spot among the sport's best.
19. Michigan (13): Any upward momentum from the win at Minnesota looks much different after the Golden Gophers followed that up with a loss at Maryland. The Wolverines didn't play well and will take a tumble in poll, but I don't think they'll fall out of the rankings. Michigan may not have looked like a top 25 team on Saturday against Michigan State, but that's only half of the profile and the strength of that first impression is the best argument to keep Michigan ranked.
20. Iowa State (23): Voters aren't going to rally behind the Cyclones in the wake of a win against Kansas, which is probably the perfect opponent to catch after a tough loss
21. Oklahoma (24): Right when everyone was ready to write off Oklahoma, we ask: Are we just going to end up at the end of the year with the Sooners winning the Big 12 again? This team has settled down after a couple early losses and looked good the last two weeks, taking down Texas Tech 62-28 on Saturday. Ultimately, Oklahoma needs some help since both Iowa State and Kansas State have tiebreaker advantages but keep your eye on how the Big 12 breaks in the coming weeks.
22. Boise State (25): Playing Air Force is always tough when you don't get as much time with the ball, but the Broncos made the most when they were on offense in a 49-30 win. No major moves after the victory but plenty of hype with BYU coming to town Friday night.
23. Texas (NR): The Longhorns had a lot of ground to make on other teams that received votes but didn't land in the top 25 last week, but a top-10 road win will do that. Losses not only to Oklahoma but unranked TCU put a ceiling on where Texas lands in its return to the rankings, but the dramatic win is likely to be rewarded by the voters.
24. Liberty (NR): Next up in line for top 25 votes after Memphis in last week's balloting, I think the Flames make their way into the rankings despite being off. It sets up even more intrigue around next week's meeting with Virginia Tech.
25. Army (NR): The AP Top 25 isn't too stubborn or rigid when it comes to adjusting on a week-to-week basis, so I'm wondering if the coaches ranking Army at No. 25 gets the Black Knights, who were off this week, a few more votes to move up from fifth team out to inside the top 25.
Projected to drop out of the rankings: North Carolina (15), Kansas State (16), Penn State (18)
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November 01, 2020 at 11:11AM
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