No. 1 Alabama is a 20-point favorite over No. 4 Notre Dame in Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinal game with a total of 65.5.
Let’s take a close look at the matchup to see if we can find any value in the betting market.
Conservative, old-school Notre Dame offense
Nick Saban ought to be excited about this matchup for his defense if for no other reason than it should remind him of the years before the proliferation of RPOs and spread offenses.
Notre Dame plays like an SEC team from early in Saban’s time in Tuscaloosa.
Its receivers are more physical than fast. In fact, the top three receivers have 88 catches this season. The top two tight ends and the starting running back have 81 catches.
Quarterback Ian Book has thrown just two interceptions. He’s more likely to hold the ball too long or throw it away than take risks downfield.
However, the Fighting Irish boast a run-blocking offensive line that ranks second in the Pro Football Focus grades. The team runs the ball on 56.4 percent of its snaps and runs offense at the 107th-fastest tempo.
Notre Dame can shorten the game in a hurry if your front seven can’t stand up to the physicality. The team’s top three backs have collected 1,840 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry. Book sometimes takes too many sacks, but he averages 7.1 yards per non-sack carry.
Clemson held Notre Dame to 30 carries for 44 yards in the ACC Championship Game, and the Irish needed a garbage-time touchdown to get within 34-10 at the end of the game. You can cripple this offense if you stuff the ground game.
This test is nothing like what the Tide faced against Florida and Ole Miss. It’s not that Notre Dame won’t be able to complete passes, especially to its tight ends. But Alabama ranks 100th in pass explosiveness allowed, its biggest weakness. And Notre Dame isn’t set up to fully exploit that.
Explosive plays key to beating Notre Dame defense
If you only watched Notre Dame against Clemson, you aren’t too impressed with the Fighting Irish defense. It allowed 40 points in a double-overtime win earlier in the season and 34 in the conference title game.
What it did against North Carolina after the first quarter was nothing short of a masterpiece. It held the Tar Heels to three points in the final 47:59. The same North Carolina team ranks fourth in SP+ offense and scored 41, 56, 59, 49 and 62 points in its last five games outside of Notre Dame.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has 11 tackles for loss and ranks ninth on Mel Kiper Jr.’s most recent Big Board for ESPN+. The team’s defense ranks fourth in havoc and third in passing downs success rate allowed.
Notre Dame also ranks first in stuff rate and 11th in PFF’s pass coverage grade.
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said his team has gotten more physical along the line of scrimmage since the Tide won 42-14 in the 2012-13 BCS National Championship. He’s correct.
That’s not to say that the Irish will beat Bama, or even keep it close. Alabama is a different team than it was in January 2013 as well.
The two keys to facing Notre Dame’s defense are avoiding third-and-long and hitting some explosive plays. The Crimson Tide are capable of checking both boxes.
Alabama ranks No. 1 in success rate. If you play to prevent big plays, it can possess the football and generate first down after first down. If you press the receivers and stack against the run, Mac Jones can find DeVonta Smith and John Metchie III over the top.
Notre Dame ranks 97th in explosiveness allowed. Alabama will be able to pick its spots to make some big-time plays in the passing game.
The question for the Tide is how its offensive line will perform without starting center Landon Dickerson, who got injured against Florida. Dickerson is the highest-graded offensive lineman on the team according to PFF and among the highest-graded players on the roster.
As good as Alabama is, it ranks 119th in stuff rate allowed and 91st in rushing explosiveness. Any slippage in the running game without Dickerson against a good Notre Dame defense could make it a touch more challenging to salt away the clock with a comfortable lead late in the game.
Betting analysis and pick
This is a huge spread for a College Football Playoff semifinal despite the high rate of blowouts in these games since the inception of the four-team format.
Alabama was just a 10.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in national championship look-ahead lines that BetOnline posted in late November.
The Tide should be thankful that it avoided Clemson and Ohio State in the semifinal. It will have to beat just one of those teams rather than two to win another national championship in a year where three teams are clearly better than everyone else.
The outcome of this game should be decided prior to the last few possessions.
Alabama -20 is still inflated by at least a few points. SP+ makes the game Bama -13.5 and the Sagarin Ratings make it Bama -15.5. But this Alabama team is so balanced, and it has been exceeding the betting market’s expectations for most of the season. The Tide even have an edge on special teams, so I’ll pass on the spread.
I expect Notre Dame to shorten the game as much as possible by playing to prevent big plays, snapping the ball late in the play clock and trying to limit possessions. So I’ll take under 65.5 as my bet on what should be an entertaining semifinal matchup.
Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper who specializes in college football and basketball. He’s the founder of Sports Locksmith.
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December 30, 2020 at 10:33PM
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