Thailand’s reformist opposition has won the most seats and the largest share of the popular vote in the country’s election in a stunning rejection of nearly a decade of military and military-backed rule.
With nearly all votes counted, the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) and the populist Pheu Thai Party were projected on Monday to win 286 seats from the 500 up for grabs.
But uncertainty remains about they would be able to form the next government due to skewed rules that allow 250 members of a military-appointed Senate to vote on the prime minister.
That means MFP and Pheu Thai will need the support of smaller parties to establish a new administration.
The biggest winner of the night was MFP, a youth-led party contesting general elections for the first time on a bold platform of reducing the entrenched power of Thailand’s royalist-military elite.
With 99 percent of preliminary results published on the elections commission website, the MFP looked set to take the biggest share of the lower-house with a total of 147 seats. These include 112 from the 400 seats that are directly elected and 35 from the 100 seats allocated to parties on a proportional basis.
Analysts described the outcome for MFP as “outstanding” as pre-election surveys had predicted that it would be Pheu Thai, which is linked to the billionaire Shinawatra family and which has won every election since 2001, that would take the lion’s share.
The outcome showed Pheu Thai had a total of 138 seats — 112 directly elected and 27 from the party-list.
The royalist-military fared poorly.
The United Thai Nation Party of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who first seized power in a coup in 2014, was trailing in fifth with 36 seats. His former party party, the Palang Pracharath was at fourth with about 40 seats.
Coming in at third was Bhumjaitai, which spearheaded the campaign to legalise marijuana in Thailand. Part of the current ruling coalition, the party was projected to win about 70 seats.
“The result is a very impressive victory for the Move Forward Party,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, professor of political science at the Ubon Ratchathani University in eastern Thailand.
“It marks a big turning point for Thailand because it indicates most people in the country want change,” he told Al Jazeera. “We are really seeing the power of the electorate, who fought hard this time for change.”
‘Sensational’
Indeed, on voting day on Sunday, Thais – young and old alike – turned up in huge numbers to cast their ballots. In the capital Bangkok, millions braved sweltering heat to exercise their right to vote, and by midday, officials at several polling stations said more than half of eligible voters had cast their votes.
This included 60-year-old Mallika Sriboonreung, who told Al Jazeera she was feeling “excited” to vote this year. “I came to vote because I wish for a better person to run the country,” she said.
Voting proceeded smoothly across the country, with long and orderly queues observed after polling opened in the northern city of Chiang Mai, the eastern resort city of Pattaya and the western tourist island of Phuket.
In all four regions, MFP swept the polls.
In Bangkok, it is poised to win in all but one of the capital’s 33 constituencies. In Chiang Mai province, the second-most populous region and long-considered a stronghold of Thaksin, it looks set to take seven out of the 10 seats. The party also took seven out of the 10 seats in Pattaya and all three seats in Phuket.
As the results began rolling in on Sunday evening, the mood among party workers and supporters at MFP’s campaign headquarters was electric.
Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat arrived to cheers and thanked supporters for a “sensational result”. “It is now clear that Move Forward has gained the immense trust of the people and of the country,” he wrote on Twitter in the early hours of Monday morning.
MFP said it planned a procession around Bangkok’s landmark Democracy Monument, while Pita is expected to address the media at 12pm (05:00 GMT) on Monday.
MFP candidates and supporters were jubilant.
“I’m surprised that MFP will be the leading party to form the government,” said an elated Piyarat “Toto” Chongthep who won election in Bangkok’s Bang-Na district.
The 28-year-old activist was at the forefront of the 2020 mass youth-led demonstrations that broke long-held taboos by calling for curbs on the powers of King Maha Vajiralongkorn. He is one of several protest leaders who ran for parliament under the MFP banner.
“For the party, it’s more than we could have imagined,” Piyarat told Al Jazeera. “I really cannot explain the feeling right now.”
Across town at the Pheu Thai headquarters, leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra offered congratulations to MFP on their election success, and said the party with the most votes would get to lead the next government.
“We are ready to talk to Move Forward, but we are waiting for the official result,” she told reporters late on Sunday.
“I’m happy for them,” she added. “We can work together.”
A glum-looking Prayuth meanwhile had little to say.
The prime minister left quietly after telling reporters that he respected democracy and the election.
The Election Commission now has 60 days to certify the election results.
‘Extended period of uncertainty’
Despite the strong showing, MFP faces an uphill battle for Bangkok’s Government House. Any winning candidate needs 376 votes across the two houses to become prime minister.
“At this point, whether or not the Senate would be willing to respect Move Forward’s mandate is still unclear, although some senators have announced before the election that they do not intend to exercise their right to select the prime minister,” Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, a political analyst, wrote in the Thai Enquirer newspaper.
The sticking points for the military-appointed Senate are the MFP’s radical reforms to the monarchy and military, including amending Thailand’s strict lese-majeste laws. The vaguely-worded Article 112 carries a penalty of 15 years in jail and rights groups say it has been used to punish political activism.
In the last election in 2019, the Senate voted unanimously for Prayuth despite his party winning a lot less seats than Pheu Thai. The prime minister was then later able to cobble together a coalition of 19 different parties.
Without the Senate’s backing, MFP will need the support of both Pheu Thai and other smaller parties, such as Bhumjaitai, led by incumbent health minister Anutin Charnvirakul.
All of this means it could take weeks for Thai voters before Thais find out who will lead their new government.
“Despite Move Forward’s triumph at the polls, Thailand is likely in for an extended period of uncertainty,” Lohatepanont wrote.
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May 15, 2023 at 07:27AM
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